Today's Half-Baked Climate Science Ignorance Casserole

Whether it is because of simply have given little thought to it or because of desire to grasp any straws in order to believe climate change is not a human concern, people who do not accept the established science typically are highly ignorant of climate science.

I have noted before that "ignorance" is by no means necessarily an insult. There is a lot of knowledge - no one can learn about everything. The negative connotation on ignorance is when it is actively embraced by shunning accurate information and/or lapping up inaccurate information. Unfortunately there is lot of that when it comes to climate.

I read a comment today that exemplified the hodgepodge of disinformation, misinformation, misunderstanding, contradictions and such that so many people throw into the pan and bake together to support their desire to refute the science of climate change. These casseroles tend to be very similar, and I think it is worth regularly debunking and trying to enlighten on various ingredients.

The starting point was a post on The New Republic describing how many politicians have abandoned trying to dispute climate science in favor of simply declaring that any efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions will supposedly crush the economy. A comment from one "mr_rationale" tried to chop down climate science with the wet noodle of ignorance.

No one doubts that the Earth's climate changes, has changed in the past, will change in the future. Total and complete agreement on this point.

The argument is over anthropogenic global warming (AGP) :
- What is the real magnitude? Initial models have been proven wrong and most of the warming happens at night due to heat sink. And the raw climate data set has yet to be made available, ignoring FOIA requests.
- Can you use the most recent 150 year data set to predict the earths climate, a planet that is over 4 Billion years old. Hmmm
- Is AGP lasting and permanent? A few million years of recent climate data would suggest otherwise -- the earth's climate is a robust system that has always reverted to mean
- Even if true, can AGP be stopped.
- Even if true, do the costs of AGP outweight benefits?

The binding ingredient here is what I call "anything butter". (I would also call this sort of a person an "anything butter") As in, acceptance of virtually anything but having to address climate change driven by human activities. Piece by piece...

No one doubts that the Earth's climate changes, has changed in the past, will change in the future. Total and complete agreement on this point.

This is little more than an attempt to seem reasonable by expressing agreement with something that if disagreed with would basically end the conversation. Acknowledging past climate change is like acknowledging there is water in the ocean. You get no credit for that because, as this person said, no one disagrees with that.

The argument is over anthropogenic global warming (AGP) :

I have no idea why the acronym chosen is "AGP". I could think of something like it being a warping of "anthropogenic" since those letters are all at least in there, but I suspect that would be too generous.

- What is the real magnitude? Initial models have been proven wrong and most of the warming happens at night due to heat sink. And the raw climate data set has yet to be made available, ignoring FOIA requests.

This is where the nonsense begins, and it is so thick it can barely be chewed. Most of it is not even wrong. What "initial models"? What has been "proven wrong"? Again I am clueless when it comes to "most of the warming happens at night due to heat sink" - that basically points to this person having heard some things and trying to parrot them despite a near complete lack of understanding. That assessment is further supported by not realizing that copious climate data is and long has been readily available.

- Can you use the most recent 150 year data set to predict the earths climate, a planet that is over 4 Billion years old. Hmmm

The fundamental point here this person does not grasp is that climate science is not based solely on the instrumental temperature record. That initial acceptance of past climate change should have already hinted at that. There are many independent lines of evidence from theory and data and observations that all converge. That is why we know that greenhouse gas increases will warm the planet.

- Is AGP lasting and permanent? A few million years of recent climate data would suggest otherwise -- the earth's climate is a robust system that has always reverted to mean

The cluelessness is only matched by the failure to realize it. What "mean" state does the earth's climate supposedly have? The climate system does not have some sort of homing instinct - climate responds to whatever ways forcings (like greenhouse gas concentration changes) push it.

- Even if true, can AGP be stopped.
- Even if true, do the costs of AGP outweight benefits?

Here we reach the thick base layer of "anything butter". This person shows no attachment to disbelief that human activities are affecting climate. The only concern is not doing anything about it. Any excuse will work. Maybe nothing can stop it! Maybe it will actually be better!

Please do not let any of the undercooked or spoiled ideas poison your brain.

Risk management and risk maximization

As summarized in a Herald article today the Grand Forks City Council last night was briefed on flooding risks for this spring. It is estimated that the chances of a 60-foot (the level to which the permanant protection including levees is supposed to work) flood in Grand Forks is 2-3 percent. To put it in a another perspective, that is basically the odds of any given number coming up on a roulette spin.

Often events with a 2-3% chance of happening are basically ignored. A 2-3% risk that any restaurant will get your order wrong? No big deal, you will still go out to eat. But Grand Forks City Engineer Al Grasser very well summarized why 2-3% is not always disregarded in describing the odds of a 60+ feet flood as

low probability of a high-consequence event.

High-consequence event. If there is a 2-3% you will be run over if you try to run across the street without looking, you take that seriously. Likewise, Grand Forks does not just let slide a 2-3% chance of a 60-foot flood (and about 1% chance of a 63-foot flood). It may be a rather unlikely event, but the costs if something happens that overcomes the local permanent flood protection is so immense that the only sensible option is to take precautions to try to avoid or ameliorate the consequences. That is reasonable risk management.

Now imagine you are in some fictional town along the Red River. The experts have explained that flooding to some degree is imminent. There is a slight chance it may not be so terrible, and those chances improve if serious preparatory action is taken. But on the other end of the spectrum it may be catastrophic, especially if nothing is done in preparation to minimize impacts. However, this town is making no serious effort at all to avoid any consequences - no sandbags, no levees, no diversions, no anything. In fact there is much more action being taken, like diverting even more water into the river, that would lead to worsening rather than to avoiding or minimizing the impacts of flooding.

As inconceivable as that seems with regard to flooding around a town, that exemplifies our action (or inaction, as the case may be) pertaining to climate change. Not only are we avoiding significant effort to deal with the problem, we are causing it ourselves and continuing to stack the odds and consequences against ourselves.

A couple years ago the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change performed a new analysis that is analogous to the local peak flood forecasts. They estimated the odds of what the global average temperature increase over essentially the 21st century would be and expressed it like a roulette wheel or a "wheel of misfortune":

By that estimate where we continue recklessly dumping immense quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere there is a roughly 2-3% chance of the temperature increase being 15+ degrees Fahrenheit. A more median projection is 9-10 degree Fahrenheit warming. We have already committed to non-trivial warming, but we could keep things from being that bad. If we enacted and followed serious policy to cut greenhouse gas emissions, the worst case for the year 2100 may be only 6+ degrees warming with a median of about 4 degrees warming.

Will we try to minimize the risk of dire consequences, or will we continue with the business as usual and maximize the risk?

Might Duane Sand *not* truly be a climate science denialist?

It has become basically a litmus test for any Republican that he or she disbelieve the decades of accumulated knowledge and understanding that explains how human activities, particularly burning fossil fuels, are driving climate change. There are a range of ways to get your check mark, from pretending the issue of climate change does not exist (a la Rick Berg) or mostly ignoring the issue except for citing some thinktank-invented uncertainty (a la John Hoeven) to the full-blown tinfoil hat proclamations that it is all a hoax (a la Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma).

In today's Herald multiple-time North Dakota Republican candidate for Congress Duane Sand made a sales pitch for nuclear power. (Nuclear power is a whole other issue - low-carbon but very expensive to say the least.) In a place in that op-ed one could pretty easily interpret Sand as acknowledging that carbon emissions need to decrease, and by really reaching one could guess that Sand understands the reason for that is their effect on climate and the environment.

For certain Sand maintains plausible deniability. He could always say that his mention of the need to replace "aging carbon-emitting power plants" does not mean that he thinks climate scientists are not wrong and/or lying. Also he might only have opposition to fossil fuels to the extent it would stand in the way of nuclear power.

And of course in the past Sand has tried to disregard climate science in favor of his own musings. Might his Americans for Prosperity ideology slightly worn off? Perhaps he is confusing himself with another non-denialist Duane Sand.

Maybe just maybe though, sanity and realism are trying to bubble to the surface for Sand. If so, do not fight it, Duane! Be a leader - acknowledge the need to decrease carbon pollution, and fight to make it happen!

Curb your goose, Kevin Cramer

Fossil fuel industry errand boy, no wait, Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer sent an early Valentine to the oil industry last month referring to it as the "goose laying golden eggs".

Bad news, Kevin. That and the other fossil carbon geese are pooping up the planet, most notably with the massive greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change. Just because you deny climate change does not mean you can hide from it, and no amount of golden eggs will change the laws of physics to match your delusion that we can burn fossil carbon with no adverse effects.

Cramer is obviously politically ambitious, and only just turned 50. Assuming he has another few decades on this rock, he will get to see more of the continuing and increasing impacts of climate change. But maybe, assuming money can even buy it, he will have gotten enough shares of the golden eggs to insulate himself enough to continue to ignore those effects. Is that all he cares about?

If Cramer wants to even pretend that he stands for "compassion" & "responsibility" and against "redistributing wealth", he must work to rein in his beloved carbon geese and stop mortgaging the futures of our children, grandchildren, and subsequent generations just to squeeze out as many golden eggs as he can today.

Getting the year off on the denialist foot

A little late, but it has to be mentioned how the Herald published some intellectual excrement from Cory Christofferson this past Sunday. They were not the ones either, as you can search the interwebs and easily find the same thing under at least the banner of the Bismarck Tribune and the Jamestown Sun.

Basically Christofferson cites snow in Germany, snow in Grand Forks, and unspecified "headlines such as these" to ask whether "God is making fun of Al Gore and the global warming nuts". Yes! A denialist ignorance hat trick of (1) using a couple instances of local weather to speak on climate, (2) conflating snow with cold, and (3) mocking Al Gore!

Really? Did the Herald not have a little graphic or clip art of a steaming pile of manure they could have run in that space instead? It would have basically been the same thing in terms of content but would have saved a bit of time on editting, assuming anyone with half a clue actually reads stuff like this.

Clearly the greater imperative for newspapers in North Dakota, including the Herald, is not to convey accurate information but rather to serve as publisher of garbage in order to concoct a sense of "balance" between on one hand information based on massive evidence and on the other hand, like from Christofferson, faulty ideas couched in politics and ignorance.

Death panels

This past week the Herald graced us with more cheerleading for long-term climate devastation from George Will. In this case though Will was not directly denying climate science. Rather he was falling back to the line of defense that there is no alternative to copious burning of coal and the resulting dumping of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and oceans.

Will talks about some history of coal usage, how integrated its burning for energy is in global society, and how relatively cheap it is as an energy source to run much of our world. He does that all to establish massive coal burning as a necessary and unavoidable characteristic of the world in which we live regardless of the consequences, which he does not really think are bad. One can easily think of the sort of columns Will might have written 150 years ago discussing slavery had how integral that system and resulting "cheap" energy were to the economic system and prosperity of the day.

Last week the Herald had one of those point-counterpoint on whether the EPA should be able to work to limit greenhouse gases emissions. Of course it was not a climate scientist opposing action, it was a Professor of Finance and Business Economics (who is also a scholar at the climate change denying AEI). As is so often the case it is a bean-counter argument calling for inaction on climate.

Yet when there is even a perception of using cost arguments to urge inaction in health care, there are screams of bloody murder. Try an internet search for "bureaucrat between you and your doctor". I got 209,000 results. The apex of that came with the claims of "death panels" going to decide whether granny gets treatment or just dies between it is not worth the cost.

Why do so many people bristle at the idea of the doctor saying treatment is needed but the bean-counter nixing it because of cost concerns, then accept an economics argument (that is not even good but actually backwards) when the science says continued greenhouse gas emissions will wreak havoc on our world?

If anyone wants to really worry about death panels, they need look no further than the George Wills and the American Enterprise Institutes of the world. They are the ones using whatever disinformation or excuses they can to avoid actions to limit our disruption to climate. Typically those excuses center on supposed costs of action and give no consideration of the tremendous costs of inaction. Their warped bean counting is the rubber stamp set to approve a brave new world rather different than the one to which we grew accustomed.

Thinksee Nosebetter and Cold Snaps

As winter takes hold in the Northern Hemisphere, we can count on many of those in denial about climate change to re-emerge after a summer of ignoring hot weather extremes to cite local cold weather as supposedly evidence against climate change. It is a Thinksee Nosebetter special, fully lacking any semblance of critical thinking - if it is "cold" somewhere, how can there be global warming?

It is worth pointing out first that "cold" is a relative and inexact term and that snow does not equal "cold". In many areas increases in heavy snowfall events are an expected consequence of global warming due to increased moisture in the air. And global warming does not mean there is no more winter or that everywhere always has sweltering heat going on. There will still be winter and cold, but in general averages will creep higher and warm extremes will become increasingly more common as cold extremes become less common.

Of course the main point I have made and will continue to make is that local and even regional cool spells over the course of weeks and even a season do not at all preclude a long-term worldwide shift toward a warmer climate. It is wrong to look at the relatively strong North Dakota economy of the past couple years and assume that the national and global economy must be fine too.

If you look around you can find plenty of individuals doing quite well in this down economy. Some, like a foreclosure specialist, may be doing well exactly because the overall economy is not doing well.

Similarly some of the current news-making cold outbreaks, particularly across Europe, may very well be due to global warming. This is the point where Thinksee Nosebetter tunes out and refuses to listen further because of a desire to believe that snow in England is not just a result of an unusual atmospheric circulation pattern but justifies denial of climate science.

It should be noted that at least for this past November in the non-tropical Northern Hemisphere besides northern Europe and part of western North America most other areas had above normal temperatures, and in many areas well above normal. What those maps of November temperature illustrate is that the hemisphere was warmer than normal overall because of the prevalence of warm anomalies. But some areas were under cooler temperature regimes basically because of a redistribution of air masses from the average configuration. The noted coldness across Europe is part of the other side of the coin of the extreme warmth in many other areas in the Northern Hemisphere.

For further more thorough explanation of the science behind the theorizing of how the warming world is helping drive cold winter weather in some areas I point to RealCimate. In short, the decreasing Arctic sea ice as a result of general warming may be driving circulation anomalies sending colder weather over some areas. Where there had been more sea ice and now there is less, more warmth is coming from the ocean into the atmosphere, and that warmth leads to rather persistent changes in the flow of air masses and weather patterns across a much larger area.

More simply, it is not as cold overall, but some of the cold has been shifted around to places that usually do not experience it.

There remains much to be learned about how and to what extent some people may experience cold spells systematically because of global warming. But certainly everyone will still at least occasionally experience cold weather due to random fluctuations in weather. Only the foolish and ignorant of climate science think those instances disprove that the climate is warming.

Arsenic and New Life

Last week there was quite the hubbub (for a science story) over the reported discovery of life in a form unlike ever seen before. Specifically it was said that microbes were found that can use arsenic in place of phosphorus in its molecular structures.

I bring up this issue here because it provides a good demonstration of why one should not get carried away with some isolated, new, hyped tidbit that supposedly overturns much established understanding. Unfortunately those inclined toward disbelieving climate science do that rather frequently. Some people will trumpet whatever they think implies that global warming is not real, not driven by human activities, not really a problem, etc.

The first problem is that uninformed hype, speculation and reading only headlines can give a very false impression. This "arsenic life" report is nothing out-of-this-world, and similarly often what some people think is or is being sold as evidence against climate change is anything but.

The bigger issue is that discoveries that purport to overturn what had been considered well-understood often do not actually pan out. In the case of the "arsenic life" it looks like the evidence is actually very weak. Continually there are unwarranted bleats of, 'Look at this - it proves global warming is no worry!' Even with the information is not being misinterpreted by non-experts, the support for such foundation-shaking claims regularly falls apart.

There is nothing wrong with scientific claims that would change our thinking nor that those usually fizzle out. That is all part of how science works. For any number of reasons subsequent work, study, and research typically shows scientists with a new idea just got it wrong. It is quite rare that the many scientists working for many years are wrong and the small number reporting a new finding a right.

Though it looks unlikely, this "arsenic life" claim may hold up with time and not be shot down. For now though the prudent approach is to hold a skeptical view of the claim. The evidence has potential serious flaws, and it would be a rather shocking discovery. Likewise, the prudent view on climate change is not to think that decades of research by thousands of individuals has not been fundamentally offbase while a few naysayers have it right. That, not blanket disbelief, marks true skepticism. Science will continue to hone our knowledge. Perhaps we will find those naysayers have it right, and somehow everyone else has long been wrong. But the overwhelming weight of the current evidence gives no real reason to assume that.

Cha-ching

Unfortunately today we got to see again the figurative blinding dollar signs in the eyes of the Herald at the prospect of even more oil in the region. Climate science denier Harold Hamm says "jump", and the Herald says, "how high? how many times? anything else we can get for you?"

An oilman (actually not just any oilman, but "the billionaire oilman from Oklahoma whose company runs more rigs in North Dakota than any other") says there is more oil in the region than the U.S. Geological Survey said a couple years ago. So suddenly we need to rush to make another reassessment. Strangely though, when climate scientists continually confirm the reality of climate change and highlight the threats we face now and over the next few generations, there is no call for action from the Herald. Hmmm, I wonder if it could be because one says, "We can all be rich, I tell ya, rich!" (yay!), and the other says that we have to face the consequence of our corner-cutting actions and be willing to pay the price of maintaining a livable climate (*yawn*).

What made news here on the climate front today was North Dakota's (or at least Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem's) hope that the state would not have to spend the remaining 80% of the $500,000 set aside for suing Minnesota over their measure to include the cost of carbon pollution in its energy bills. The desire is that Minnesota move back to ignoring the cost of carbon pollution, and the belief is that perhaps the increase in Republican numbers in their state legislature will lead to that happening.

If only there was real news right now about actually dealing with climate change...

The Chamber of Commerce talks the talk, almost

For certain the Chamber of Commerce has earned the scorn directed toward it for trying to dispute climate science and reflexively opposing action to decrease greenhouse gas emissions with complaints that doing so would cripple business and destroy the economy.

Imagine then my reaction when I read a statement from the Chamber in a McClatchy Newspapers story in the Herald today.

The U.S. Chamber is encouraging the entire business community not just to calculate the cost of specific ... reduction proposals to their individual companies, but to weigh the long-term costs to our country, our economy, and future generations if we fail to act. All solutions will require shared sacrifices and we must be prepared to make them.

Wow!

Except you may have noticed the ellipsis in the quote above. As much as I might like it to have been "greenhouse gas emissions", what has been removed is the word "deficit", as in the difference between budget expenditures and collections. The quote is in reaction to the deficit reduction commission chaired by Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, which in many quarters is being viewed as mostly a sop to business interests and supply-side economics supporters.

The Chamber is still not showing any genuine signs of interest in weighing long-term costs nor shared sacrifices. The Bowles-Simpson plan talks about lowering corporate tax rates, so the Chamber is interested since that may mean a relatively quick buck. There are initial costs to transitioning away from dirty energy, and the Chamber fears losing a buck. If the Chamber cared about investing in the long-term they would support efforts to build a sustainable, green energy economy. So how about it, Chamber?

Orchestral Manoeuvres in the Denial

The Real Story of Climategate

Read it.

The spectre of the rising seas in our own backyard

(I actually had this largely written before it came out, but the recent New York Times front page treatment of this science motivated me to wrap it up and deserves mention. Though it is not perfect, for a media article it is very good.)

One problem trying to explain the threat of climate change to residents of an area like the Red River Valley is that some may simplistically think something like, 'hey, a little warmer here sounds pretty good.' There are a wide range of counter-responses to that ranging from how that warming will adversely affect agriculture, how that is not considering changes to precipitation, that without action against it most assuredly it will not stop with merely 'a little warming', etc.

Some people may grasp the negative local effects but not appreciate impacts they would not see or feel in their backyards yet nonetheless would matter. Though there is familiarity with seasonal rises of rivers, one thing North Dakotans certainly do not have to worry about directly is rising sea levels. So one can worry that by the out-of-sight/out-of-mind principle folks around here may not give much consideration to rising sea level among the threats of climate change. The experience fighting river flooding here may even make people dismissive of that threat, thinking that the problem can be easily overcome by putting up some levees, dykes, and walls.

The rising of Devils Lake over the last couple decades gives a local illustration of what rising sea level will look like. That costly picture may help motivate people to try to avoid making the problem much worse that to what we are already committed. To be clear, I am only comparing the effects of the rising levels of the oceans and of Devils Lake. I am not comparing their causes nor saying that Devils Lake is rising because of global warming. But I am also not saying that climate change is not a factor - I am simply ignoring here the causes for the rise of Devils Lake.

A factor in dealing with any mess is having the things done in response be effective and minimizing their negative repercussions. With rising seas pumps are not going to be effective for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the lack of somewhere you could pump ocean water to "get rid" of it. Pumping water away is a response that has been used at Devils Lake, but that has issues with effectiveness (to say nothing of cost-effectiveness) and resulting water quality concerns due to the discharged water. That is just an example of how a seemingly simple answer may not actually be of much good.

The seemingly simple answer for many people on rising sea level again may be levees, dykes, and walls. After all, the Dutch are doing it. There are plenty of problems with the physical practicality of attempting that. Protecting New Orleans or the Netherlands is one thing, but doing that all across the world is another thing, or rather, like the same thing times a thousand. Though efforts may be made to protect many urban areas, not everywhere could be protected and maintained. Maybe you do not care much about Maldives, Bangladesh, or coastal wetlands like southern Louisiana. Yet the combination of what we do and what we do not do will have an extremely high monetary cost, not even mentioning other social and environmental costs.

Over the past 17 years about $700 million dollars have gone toward dealing with the rise of Devils Lake, and that problem is hardly resolved. Now imagine having to spend like that across just the US where people live near the coast. Hardly seems like what a country currently paranoid about too much spending and expensive future obligations would want to deal with.

The costs of inaction are exceedingly high. If we do not simply let Devils Lake overrun whatever in order to save money, obviously we are not going to give up on wide swaths of oceanfront property. Here is a good summary of the situation facing one area in particular, Florida. Conceding ground costs real estate and other pistons of the economic engine such as tourism and recreation in Florida. Also it makes the threat of storms much more severe. At Devils Lake it is when the wind whips up that damaging water is even more sloshed around. Yet spending on walls, sand pumping, moving infrastructure, etc is not cheap. The $7 million for a new Minnewauken school is a drop in the bucket compared to protecting and moving much of, say, Miami.

It cannot be forgotten that protection against rising seas will surely not be 100% successful all of the time, especially in the face of storms which may be packing increasing punches in our warming world. One needs only look as far as New Orleans during Katrina to see an example and the price of failure.

It is also exceedingly important to remember now long of a view we need to take. Even if the lower estimates (from which there has been much retreat) of sea level rise come to pass over the next century - like a foot or two rather than three feet - that is hardly the end of the story. Because of ocean dynamics major cities in the northeast like New York City, Washington DC, and Boston will actually face even larger rises than the global average sea level increase.

And especially critically do not be confused by all the talk of sea level rise by 2100 into thinking that the rise will not be continuing long beyond that. The year 2100 is an arbitrary point widely used to facilitate comparisons in research. Hardly stopping in 2100, this episode of sea level will very likely be going faster than ever at that time. Is being lucking and having "only" 2 feet of rise by 2100 much good if it will be 5 or 6 or ??? feet by 2200 with more to come after that? Do we close our eyes and pretend that is none of our concern?